Introducing The Investment Study

Welcome to the Margin Studies blog, and specifically the Margin Studies Investment Study.

Over the last few years, I’ve begun to take a bigger interest in personal finance….  This blog is a result of that! Ultimately everything you read and listen to ends up saying nearly the same thing.

Spend less than you make.

But what do you do with the difference? What do you do with the margin?That’s where there seems to be a pretty big disconnect between the different voices in the community.  You hear people investing in stocks, real estate, businesses, cryptocurrency, designer dogs, luxury sofas? … Ok maybe there aren’t a huge number of dog and furniture investment advocates on the internet, but there are many different things you can do with your money!

Stock investing is something I’ve been learning more and more about over the last few years, and that’s what I want to really dive into. If you’re looking to invest your money in equities (stocks and bonds and all of that other thing you might select in a 401k), what’s the smartest way to do that?

I don’t really have the answers, but i’m nerdy enough to decide to create some different pictures and willing to track their progress as time goes on.

heres to the up and up

Introducing the Margin Studies Investment Study

Before I really dive into this, lets just say this: I’m not telling you what to do with your money here. I’m not a certified financial planner. I’m not licensed to sell securities. I might even be dead wrong with some of my assumptions or models here.

I want to create a set of five portfolios that, together, we can watch as the market changes over the coming years.

This afternoon, I looked up a number of asset allocations that I’ll introduce in a moment, and for each of these allocations, I recorded an ETF that would model the assets required in each allocation.

A couple of things to note during the course of the investment study

  • I have started each portfolio with a starting balance of $10,000.
  • Each portfolio is made up of ETFs that are readily available, however aren’t necessarily from the list of commission free ETFs that my service offers.
  • Every two months, on the 1st of the month, I’ll dive into each portfolio, rebalance if it’s necessary, and then hop on the Margin Studies blog to report how each are doing.
  • Kanye West is a genius.

… 🙂 anyway, where were we? … Oh yeah!

The chosen few…. The Investment Study portfolios.

Portfolio number 1: The Ivy League Portfolio

This portfolio is based on the David Swenson Portfolio found in Tony Robbin’s Money: Master the Game. I remember reading the book and being pretty intrigued by this portfolio and it’s track record over the years. David Swenson is the chief investment officer at Yale, while he’s been at Yale, he’s grown their endowment from 1 billion to 28 billion. That’s pretty incredible. Maybe his wisdom can help us in our own investments?

The Ivy League Portfolio

30%: US Stocks — VTI
15%: International Stocks — VEA
5%:  Emerging Markets — VWO
20%: Real Estate — VNQ
15%: Intermediate Term Bonds — IEF
15%: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities — TIP

 

Portfolio number 2: The Midwest Portfolio

This portfolio is based on Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio found in Tony Robbin’s Money: Master the Game. Ray Dalio is the founder of one of the largest investment firms in the country — Bridgewater Associates. This portfolio at first glance seems pretty strange, with a diverse mix of assets, but it’s hard to argue with somebody who almost certainly knows more about this than me. Also, i’ve decided to call this the Midwest portfolio because we in the Midwest seem to get any kind of weather you could think of. So we’re prepared…. just like this portfolio is supposed to be. I’m exited to see where this portfolio stacks up during the course of the investment study.

The Midwest Portfolio

30%: US Stocks — VTI
40%: Long Term Bonds — TLT
15%: Intermediate Term Bonds — IEF
7.5%: Gold — IAU
7.5%: Commodities — DBC

 

Portfolio number 3: The Risky Robots

This portfolio is based on the asset allocation that a robot advisor suggested for me when I set up an IRA account with them a couple years ago. They took a brief assessment of my risk tolerance and financial goals and came up with this portfolio. I’m still not completely sold on Robo-Advisors, but if you’re a believer in the investment portfolio theories that Tony Robbins based Money Master the Game on, it’s hard to argue with how easy these Robo-Advisors make diversifying your money… you deposit money in, and they take care of the rest.

The Risky Robots 

21%: US Stocks — VTI
18%: International Stocks — VEA
22%: Emerging Market Stocks — VWO
13%: Dividend Stocks — VIG
16%: Real Estate — VNQ
5%: Corporate Bonds — VCIT
5%: Emerging Market Bonds — PCY

Portfolio number 4: The Simple Path

This portfolio is based pretty much the holy grail of the FIRE( Financial Independence / Retire Early ) movement. Jim Collins, in his stock series, lays out a very compelling argument to adopt this strategy. The portfolio is Simple. 100% of the portfolio in VTSAX (or the VTI etf equivalent, as I’m using here.) Your money will go up and down according to the market, but that in the long run, the market always goes up, so as long as you’re willing to endure the ride, this is both the simplest place for your money. Jim argues that this is also perhaps the most sound investment for the “Wealth Accumulation Phase” of your career. I’ll also add, that as I’ve been setting this up, i LOVED how simple it was to calculate out this  piece of the Investment Study

The Simple Path

100%: US Stocks — VTI
…  and a nod of approval from seemingly all of the other bloggers in this space.

 

Portfolio number 5: The Smoother Path?

This portfolio is based on Jim Collin’s Simple Path to wealth, but to be the portfolio to be used when you’ve reached your ‘Wealth Preservation’ phase of life: for when you need to smooth out the ride a little. One common investment principle you’ll hear get tossed around is to invest your age in Bonds, and then the rest in stocks. However, from what I can see right now, this might be outdated advice — largely because bonds no longer really offer any significant growth opportunity, these arguers suggested that today, you’re better off increasing the amount invested in the market to (120 minus your age) in stocks, and then the rest in bonds. I decided that this would be the Smoother Path to Wealth Portfolio here in the investment study. Oh… and I’m 31 as of today (November 2018).

The Smoother Path

89%: US Stocks — VTI
11%: Long Term Bonds — IEF

… Phew. There’s a lot to this!

The Investment Study as it stands today:

Current Score Card for the investment study.... we're currently all tied up!
Riveting.

When it is time to rebalance these portfolios over the coming months, I’ll update you on what is needed to buy and sell for each of these portfolios to remain close to their intended allocations. But ultimately the importance of this study isn’t the amount of VTI a certain portfolio holds, but how each portfolio performs at building and maintaining wealth in the coming months and years.

So what do you think? I’d love to hear your thoughts on the way I have things set up, or what assumptions I should make.

 

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